TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Braymer | Northwest (Hughesville) |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-4 | 3-1 |
| PF / GAME | 24.9 | 39.5 |
| PA / GAME | 47.7 | 34.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | -28.6 | +10.3 |
| SOS | +6.7 | +6.0 |
| POWER | -26.3 | +12.4 |
NORTHWEST (HUGHESVILLE) WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Northwest (Hughesville) finished the job, as Braymer and Northwest (Hughesville) finished 8-46. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 25-48 final.
The actual margin was 38 points versus MOFO's 22.9-point projection. That produced a 15.1-point margin error, with score errors of 17.1 for Braymer and 2.0 for Northwest (Hughesville).
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD NORTHWEST (HUGHESVILLE)
MOFO leans toward Northwest (Hughesville) because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 38.6-point power-rating advantage and projects a 22.9-point margin, with Northwest (Hughesville) carrying a 95% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Northwest (Hughesville) enters at 39.5 points per game compared with 24.9 for Braymer. Northwest (Hughesville) also allows 13.7 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +6.0 for Northwest (Hughesville) and +6.7 for Braymer. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Northwest (Hughesville) owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Braymer has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 38.6-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.