TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | McCluer North | Northwest (Cedar Hill) |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-1 | 3-0 |
| PF / GAME | 25.0 | 28.6 |
| PA / GAME | 17.7 | 16.2 |
| AVG MARGIN | +8.9 | +20.7 |
| SOS | -5.9 | -8.7 |
| POWER | +6.8 | +17.6 |
NORTHWEST (CEDAR HILL) WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Northwest (Cedar Hill) finished the job, as McCluer North and Northwest (Cedar Hill) finished 6-36. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 19-24 final.
The actual margin was 30 points versus MOFO's 5.1-point projection. That produced a 24.9-point margin error, with score errors of 13.4 for McCluer North and 11.6 for Northwest (Cedar Hill).
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD NORTHWEST (CEDAR HILL)
MOFO leans toward Northwest (Cedar Hill) because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 10.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 5.1-point margin, with Northwest (Cedar Hill) carrying a 66% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Northwest (Cedar Hill) enters at 28.6 points per game compared with 25.0 for McCluer North. Northwest (Cedar Hill) also allows 1.5 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -8.7 for Northwest (Cedar Hill) and -5.9 for McCluer North. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Northwest (Cedar Hill) owns the stronger scoring profile.
02McCluer North has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 10.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.