TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Osceola | New Heights Christian |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| PF / GAME | 22.2 | 31.9 |
| PA / GAME | 46.0 | 43.2 |
| AVG MARGIN | -23.0 | -13.9 |
| SOS | -0.6 | +5.0 |
| POWER | -23.2 | -12.2 |
OSCEOLA WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Osceola finished the job, as Osceola and New Heights Christian finished 13-0. MOFO's pick of New Heights Christian missed; the model had projected a 31-40 final.
The actual margin was 13 points versus MOFO's 9.0-point projection. That produced a 22.0-point margin error, with score errors of 18.3 for Osceola and 40.3 for New Heights Christian.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD NEW HEIGHTS CHRISTIAN
MOFO leans toward New Heights Christian because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 11.1-point power-rating advantage and projects a 9.0-point margin, with New Heights Christian carrying a 77% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: New Heights Christian enters at 31.9 points per game compared with 22.2 for Osceola. New Heights Christian also allows 2.8 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +5.0 for New Heights Christian and -0.6 for Osceola. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01New Heights Christian owns the stronger scoring profile.
02New Heights Christian has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 11.1-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.