TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Seneca | Nevada |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 4-0 |
| PF / GAME | 28.2 | 26.0 |
| PA / GAME | 20.2 | 21.5 |
| AVG MARGIN | +10.2 | +6.9 |
| SOS | +5.6 | -3.6 |
| POWER | +12.2 | +5.7 |
SENECA WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Seneca finished the job, as Seneca and Nevada finished 37-16. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 26-22 final.
The actual margin was 21 points versus MOFO's 3.2-point projection. That produced a 17.8-point margin error, with score errors of 11.4 for Seneca and 6.4 for Nevada.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SENECA
MOFO leans toward Seneca because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 6.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 3.2-point margin, with Seneca carrying a 61% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Seneca enters at 28.2 points per game compared with 26.0 for Nevada. Seneca also allows 1.3 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +5.6 for Seneca and -3.6 for Nevada. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Seneca owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Seneca has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 6.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.