TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | McDonald County | Mt. Vernon |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| PF / GAME | 22.5 | 23.4 |
| PA / GAME | 33.5 | 24.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | -16.3 | -1.3 |
| SOS | +5.9 | -0.5 |
| POWER | -14.2 | -1.5 |
MT. VERNON WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Mt. Vernon finished the job, as McDonald County and Mt. Vernon finished 13-35. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 22-30 final.
The actual margin was 22 points versus MOFO's 7.8-point projection. That produced a 14.2-point margin error, with score errors of 9.0 for McDonald County and 5.2 for Mt. Vernon.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD MT. VERNON
MOFO leans toward Mt. Vernon because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 12.7-point power-rating advantage and projects a 7.8-point margin, with Mt. Vernon carrying a 74% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Mt. Vernon enters at 23.4 points per game compared with 22.5 for McDonald County. Mt. Vernon also allows 9.1 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -0.5 for Mt. Vernon and +5.9 for McDonald County. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Mt. Vernon owns the stronger scoring profile.
02McDonald County has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 12.7-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.