TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Aurora | Monett |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-4 | 2-2 |
| PF / GAME | 11.4 | 30.9 |
| PA / GAME | 31.2 | 28.2 |
| AVG MARGIN | -26.7 | +3.3 |
| SOS | +12.4 | -1.8 |
| POWER | -22.4 | +2.6 |
MONETT WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Monett finished the job, as Aurora and Monett finished 20-34. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 17-34 final.
The actual margin was 14 points versus MOFO's 16.5-point projection. That produced a 2.5-point margin error, with score errors of 2.8 for Aurora and 0.4 for Monett.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD MONETT
MOFO leans toward Monett because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 25.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 16.5-point margin, with Monett carrying a 90% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Monett enters at 30.9 points per game compared with 11.4 for Aurora. Monett also allows 3.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -1.8 for Monett and +12.4 for Aurora. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Monett owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Aurora has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 25.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.