TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Pierce City | Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-1 | 3-1 |
| PF / GAME | 30.4 | 34.2 |
| PA / GAME | 21.7 | 11.5 |
| AVG MARGIN | +11.1 | +23.5 |
| SOS | +16.3 | -11.2 |
| POWER | +16.8 | +19.6 |
MILLER WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Miller finished the job, as Pierce City and Miller finished 7-12. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 21-28 final.
The actual margin was 5 points versus MOFO's 6.6-point projection. That produced a 1.6-point margin error, with score errors of 14.1 for Pierce City and 15.7 for Miller.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD MILLER
MOFO leans toward Miller because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 2.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 6.6-point margin, with Miller carrying a 71% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Miller enters at 34.2 points per game compared with 30.4 for Pierce City. Miller also allows 10.2 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -11.2 for Miller and +16.3 for Pierce City. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Miller owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Pierce City has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 2.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.