TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Clayton with Brentwood | McCluer |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-2 | 1-3 |
| PF / GAME | 18.3 | 16.9 |
| PA / GAME | 41.9 | 24.5 |
| AVG MARGIN | -31.7 | -10.8 |
| SOS | +10.2 | +4.7 |
| POWER | -28.1 | -9.2 |
MCCLUER WRITES THE FINAL WORD
McCluer finished the job, as Clayton with Brentwood and McCluer finished 6-32. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 19-31 final.
The actual margin was 26 points versus MOFO's 12.0-point projection. That produced a 14.0-point margin error, with score errors of 13.4 for Clayton with Brentwood and 0.6 for McCluer.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD MCCLUER
MOFO leans toward McCluer because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 18.9-point power-rating advantage and projects a 12.0-point margin, with McCluer carrying a 83% win probability.
Clayton with Brentwood actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. McCluer also allows 17.4 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +4.7 for McCluer and +10.2 for Clayton with Brentwood. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Clayton with Brentwood owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Clayton with Brentwood has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 18.9-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.