MATER DEI (ILL.) WRITES THE FINAL WORD

Mater Dei (Ill.) finished the job, as Saxony Lutheran and Mater Dei (Ill.) finished 28-43. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 27-30 final.

The actual margin was 15 points versus MOFO's 3.9-point projection. That produced a 11.1-point margin error, with score errors of 1.4 for Saxony Lutheran and 12.5 for Mater Dei (Ill.).

THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD MATER DEI (ILL.)

MOFO leans toward Mater Dei (Ill.) because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 9.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 3.9-point margin, with Mater Dei (Ill.) carrying a 63% win probability.

Saxony Lutheran actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Mater Dei (Ill.) also allows 5.1 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.

Strength of schedule checks in at -10.8 for Mater Dei (Ill.) and -0.8 for Saxony Lutheran. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low — no season data.