TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Kirksville | Marshall |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-4 | 1-3 |
| PF / GAME | 14.4 | 21.0 |
| PA / GAME | 26.9 | 32.5 |
| AVG MARGIN | -18.8 | -20.2 |
| SOS | +8.5 | -1.2 |
| POWER | -15.8 | -20.6 |
KIRKSVILLE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Kirksville finished the job, as Kirksville and Marshall finished 21-13. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 24-23 final.
The actual margin was 8 points versus MOFO's 1.4-point projection. That produced a 6.6-point margin error, with score errors of 3.4 for Kirksville and 10.0 for Marshall.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD KIRKSVILLE
MOFO leans toward Kirksville because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 4.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 1.4-point margin, with Kirksville carrying a 55% win probability.
Marshall actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Kirksville also allows 5.6 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +8.5 for Kirksville and -1.2 for Marshall. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Marshall owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Kirksville has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 4.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.