TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Lafayette (Wildwood) | Marquette |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| PF / GAME | 26.4 | 28.4 |
| PA / GAME | 25.0 | 26.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | +1.7 | +3.3 |
| SOS | +6.9 | +7.6 |
| POWER | +4.1 | +6.0 |
MARQUETTE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Marquette finished the job, as Lafayette (Wildwood) and Marquette finished 21-27. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 26-27 final.
The actual margin was 6 points versus MOFO's 0.8-point projection. That produced a 5.2-point margin error, with score errors of 5.1 for Lafayette (Wildwood) and 0.0 for Marquette.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD MARQUETTE
MOFO leans toward Marquette because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 1.9-point power-rating advantage and projects a 0.8-point margin, with Marquette carrying a 53% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Marquette enters at 28.4 points per game compared with 26.4 for Lafayette (Wildwood). Lafayette (Wildwood)'s defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +7.6 for Marquette and +6.9 for Lafayette (Wildwood). Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Marquette owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Marquette has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 1.9-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.