TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Sarcoxie | Marionville |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| PF / GAME | 32.5 | 22.9 |
| PA / GAME | 19.0 | 24.7 |
| AVG MARGIN | +16.3 | -2.6 |
| SOS | -17.7 | +3.0 |
| POWER | +10.1 | -1.5 |
MARIONVILLE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Marionville finished the job, as Sarcoxie and Marionville finished 21-28. MOFO's pick of Sarcoxie missed; the model had projected a 29-20 final.
The actual margin was 7 points versus MOFO's 9.3-point projection. That produced a 16.3-point margin error, with score errors of 8.4 for Sarcoxie and 7.9 for Marionville.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SARCOXIE
MOFO leans toward Sarcoxie because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 11.7-point power-rating advantage and projects a 9.3-point margin, with Sarcoxie carrying a 78% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Sarcoxie enters at 32.5 points per game compared with 22.9 for Marionville. Sarcoxie also allows 5.7 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -17.7 for Sarcoxie and +3.0 for Marionville. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Sarcoxie owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Marionville has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 11.7-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.