TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Centralia | Macon |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-0 | 3-1 |
| PF / GAME | 42.2 | 30.2 |
| PA / GAME | 19.5 | 19.7 |
| AVG MARGIN | +31.1 | +15.9 |
| SOS | -9.0 | +11.9 |
| POWER | +28.0 | +20.0 |
CENTRALIA WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Centralia finished the job, as Centralia and Macon finished 42-13. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 31-24 final.
The actual margin was 29 points versus MOFO's 6.9-point projection. That produced a 22.1-point margin error, with score errors of 10.7 for Centralia and 11.5 for Macon.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD CENTRALIA
MOFO leans toward Centralia because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 8.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 6.9-point margin, with Centralia carrying a 71% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Centralia enters at 42.2 points per game compared with 30.2 for Macon. Centralia also allows 0.2 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -9.0 for Centralia and +11.9 for Macon. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Centralia owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Macon has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 8.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.