TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | North County | Lutheran St. Charles |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-3 | 0-4 |
| PF / GAME | 19.9 | 11.2 |
| PA / GAME | 35.2 | 49.7 |
| AVG MARGIN | -19.5 | -35.0 |
| SOS | +16.7 | +5.2 |
| POWER | -13.7 | -33.2 |
NORTH COUNTY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
North County finished the job, as North County and Lutheran St. Charles finished 48-12. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 37-21 final.
The actual margin was 36 points versus MOFO's 16.4-point projection. That produced a 19.6-point margin error, with score errors of 10.8 for North County and 8.8 for Lutheran St. Charles.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD NORTH COUNTY
MOFO leans toward North County because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 19.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 16.4-point margin, with North County carrying a 90% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: North County enters at 19.9 points per game compared with 11.2 for Lutheran St. Charles. North County also allows 14.5 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +16.7 for North County and +5.2 for Lutheran St. Charles. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01North County owns the stronger scoring profile.
02North County has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 19.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.