TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Lutheran North | Lutheran South |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-3 | 1-3 |
| PF / GAME | 24.2 | 28.7 |
| PA / GAME | 31.0 | 37.7 |
| AVG MARGIN | -11.3 | -13.3 |
| SOS | +7.2 | -8.8 |
| POWER | -8.8 | -16.4 |
LUTHERAN NORTH WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Lutheran North finished the job, as Lutheran North and Lutheran South finished 61-0. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 32-28 final.
The actual margin was 61 points versus MOFO's 3.8-point projection. That produced a 57.2-point margin error, with score errors of 28.7 for Lutheran North and 28.5 for Lutheran South.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD LUTHERAN NORTH
MOFO leans toward Lutheran North because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 7.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 3.8-point margin, with Lutheran North carrying a 62% win probability.
Lutheran South actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Lutheran North also allows 6.7 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +7.2 for Lutheran North and -8.8 for Lutheran South. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Lutheran South owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Lutheran North has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 7.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.