TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Bolivar | Logan-Rogersville |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-1 | 4-0 |
| PF / GAME | 32.4 | 41.5 |
| PA / GAME | 20.0 | 15.7 |
| AVG MARGIN | +16.6 | +29.3 |
| SOS | -4.6 | -9.1 |
| POWER | +15.0 | +26.1 |
LOGAN-ROGERSVILLE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Logan-Rogersville finished the job, as Bolivar and Logan-Rogersville finished 13-42. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 23-32 final.
The actual margin was 29 points versus MOFO's 9.2-point projection. That produced a 19.8-point margin error, with score errors of 9.8 for Bolivar and 10.0 for Logan-Rogersville.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD LOGAN-ROGERSVILLE
MOFO leans toward Logan-Rogersville because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 11.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 9.2-point margin, with Logan-Rogersville carrying a 77% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Logan-Rogersville enters at 41.5 points per game compared with 32.4 for Bolivar. Logan-Rogersville also allows 4.3 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -9.1 for Logan-Rogersville and -4.6 for Bolivar. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Logan-Rogersville owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Bolivar has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 11.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.