TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Rockwood Summit | Lindbergh |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| PF / GAME | 28.4 | 21.2 |
| PA / GAME | 25.5 | 25.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | -3.2 | -5.9 |
| SOS | +8.6 | +5.1 |
| POWER | -0.2 | -4.1 |
LINDBERGH WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Lindbergh finished the job, as Rockwood Summit and Lindbergh finished 14-16. MOFO's pick of Rockwood Summit missed; the model had projected a 27-23 final.
The actual margin was 2 points versus MOFO's 4.3-point projection. That produced a 6.3-point margin error, with score errors of 13.3 for Rockwood Summit and 6.9 for Lindbergh.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ROCKWOOD SUMMIT
MOFO leans toward Rockwood Summit because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 3.9-point power-rating advantage and projects a 4.3-point margin, with Rockwood Summit carrying a 64% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Rockwood Summit enters at 28.4 points per game compared with 21.2 for Lindbergh. Lindbergh's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +8.6 for Rockwood Summit and +5.1 for Lindbergh. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Rockwood Summit owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Rockwood Summit has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 3.9-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.