TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Lockwood | Lincoln |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-0 | 0-4 |
| PF / GAME | 55.4 | 19.5 |
| PA / GAME | 29.5 | 37.5 |
| AVG MARGIN | +32.4 | -25.9 |
| SOS | +6.1 | +9.4 |
| POWER | +34.5 | -22.6 |
LOCKWOOD WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Lockwood finished the job, as Lockwood and Lincoln finished 69-8. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 53-18 final.
The actual margin was 61 points versus MOFO's 34.6-point projection. That produced a 26.4-point margin error, with score errors of 16.2 for Lockwood and 10.2 for Lincoln.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD LOCKWOOD
MOFO leans toward Lockwood because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 57.1-point power-rating advantage and projects a 34.6-point margin, with Lockwood carrying a 95% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Lockwood enters at 55.4 points per game compared with 19.5 for Lincoln. Lockwood also allows 8.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +6.1 for Lockwood and +9.4 for Lincoln. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Lockwood owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Lincoln has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 57.1-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.