TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Staley | Liberty North |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| PF / GAME | 23.4 | 29.7 |
| PA / GAME | 22.4 | 27.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | +0.3 | +3.3 |
| SOS | -1.6 | +4.4 |
| POWER | -0.2 | +4.9 |
LIBERTY NORTH WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Liberty North finished the job, as Staley and Liberty North finished 7-43. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 24-27 final.
The actual margin was 36 points versus MOFO's 2.2-point projection. That produced a 33.8-point margin error, with score errors of 17.5 for Staley and 16.3 for Liberty North.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD LIBERTY NORTH
MOFO leans toward Liberty North because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 5.1-point power-rating advantage and projects a 2.2-point margin, with Liberty North carrying a 57% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Liberty North enters at 29.7 points per game compared with 23.4 for Staley. Staley's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +4.4 for Liberty North and -1.6 for Staley. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Liberty North owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Liberty North has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 5.1-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.