TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Holden | Lexington |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-3 | 0-4 |
| PF / GAME | 18.2 | 16.5 |
| PA / GAME | 40.0 | 26.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | -23.5 | -14.3 |
| SOS | +11.1 | -10.2 |
| POWER | -19.7 | -17.9 |
HOLDEN WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Holden finished the job, as Holden and Lexington finished 34-14. MOFO's pick of Lexington missed; the model had projected a 22-28 final.
The actual margin was 20 points versus MOFO's 5.6-point projection. That produced a 25.6-point margin error, with score errors of 11.5 for Holden and 14.1 for Lexington.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD LEXINGTON
MOFO leans toward Lexington because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 1.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 5.6-point margin, with Lexington carrying a 68% win probability.
Holden actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Lexington also allows 13.6 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -10.2 for Lexington and +11.1 for Holden. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Holden owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Holden has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 1.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.