TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Richmond | Lafayette County |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| PF / GAME | 28.2 | 29.4 |
| PA / GAME | 30.0 | 27.5 |
| AVG MARGIN | -2.4 | -3.1 |
| SOS | +4.1 | +7.5 |
| POWER | -1.0 | -0.5 |
RICHMOND WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Richmond finished the job, as Richmond and Lafayette County finished 50-20. MOFO's pick of Lafayette County missed; the model had projected a 28-30 final.
The actual margin was 30 points versus MOFO's 2.3-point projection. That produced a 32.3-point margin error, with score errors of 22.4 for Richmond and 9.9 for Lafayette County.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD LAFAYETTE COUNTY
MOFO leans toward Lafayette County because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 0.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 2.3-point margin, with Lafayette County carrying a 57% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Lafayette County enters at 29.4 points per game compared with 28.2 for Richmond. Lafayette County also allows 2.5 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +7.5 for Lafayette County and +4.1 for Richmond. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Lafayette County owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Lafayette County has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 0.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.