TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Lebanon | Kickapoo |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| PF / GAME | 18.2 | 17.0 |
| PA / GAME | 36.9 | 30.7 |
| AVG MARGIN | -25.1 | -15.7 |
| SOS | +14.7 | +2.9 |
| POWER | -20.0 | -14.7 |
LEBANON WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Lebanon finished the job, as Lebanon and Kickapoo finished 48-31. MOFO's pick of Kickapoo missed; the model had projected a 24-27 final.
The actual margin was 17 points versus MOFO's 3.0-point projection. That produced a 20.0-point margin error, with score errors of 23.8 for Lebanon and 3.8 for Kickapoo.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD KICKAPOO
MOFO leans toward Kickapoo because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 5.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 3.0-point margin, with Kickapoo carrying a 60% win probability.
Lebanon actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Kickapoo also allows 6.2 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +2.9 for Kickapoo and +14.7 for Lebanon. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Lebanon owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Lebanon has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 5.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.