TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Winnetonka | Kearney |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-3 | 4-0 |
| PF / GAME | 27.2 | 36.2 |
| PA / GAME | 36.0 | 12.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | -8.1 | +28.1 |
| SOS | +3.5 | -1.6 |
| POWER | -6.8 | +27.5 |
KEARNEY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Kearney finished the job, as Winnetonka and Kearney finished 7-72. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 17-40 final.
The actual margin was 65 points versus MOFO's 23.1-point projection. That produced a 41.9-point margin error, with score errors of 9.5 for Winnetonka and 32.4 for Kearney.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD KEARNEY
MOFO leans toward Kearney because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 34.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 23.1-point margin, with Kearney carrying a 95% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Kearney enters at 36.2 points per game compared with 27.2 for Winnetonka. Kearney also allows 23.1 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -1.6 for Kearney and +3.5 for Winnetonka. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Kearney owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Winnetonka has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 34.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.