TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | MICDS | John Burroughs |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-1 | 0-2 |
| PF / GAME | 37.9 | 17.7 |
| PA / GAME | 26.5 | 25.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | +15.6 | -15.8 |
| SOS | +5.2 | +1.4 |
| POWER | +17.4 | -15.3 |
MICDS WRITES THE FINAL WORD
MICDS finished the job, as MICDS and John Burroughs finished 60-20. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 36-18 final.
The actual margin was 40 points versus MOFO's 17.4-point projection. That produced a 22.6-point margin error, with score errors of 24.3 for MICDS and 1.7 for John Burroughs.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD MICDS
MOFO leans toward MICDS because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 32.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 17.4-point margin, with MICDS carrying a 91% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: MICDS enters at 37.9 points per game compared with 17.7 for John Burroughs. John Burroughs's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +5.2 for MICDS and +1.4 for John Burroughs. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01MICDS owns the stronger scoring profile.
02MICDS has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 32.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.