TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Warrenton | Holt |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| PF / GAME | 19.9 | 35.7 |
| PA / GAME | 20.7 | 31.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | -3.1 | +6.4 |
| SOS | -4.7 | +4.1 |
| POWER | -4.8 | +7.8 |
WARRENTON WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Warrenton finished the job, as Warrenton and Holt finished 49-14. MOFO's pick of Holt missed; the model had projected a 24-30 final.
The actual margin was 35 points versus MOFO's 6.4-point projection. That produced a 41.4-point margin error, with score errors of 25.4 for Warrenton and 16.0 for Holt.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD HOLT
MOFO leans toward Holt because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 12.6-point power-rating advantage and projects a 6.4-point margin, with Holt carrying a 70% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Holt enters at 35.7 points per game compared with 19.9 for Warrenton. Warrenton's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +4.1 for Holt and -4.7 for Warrenton. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Holt owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Holt has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 12.6-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.