TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Festus | Hillsboro |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 4-0 |
| PF / GAME | 30.7 | 39.7 |
| PA / GAME | 20.2 | 17.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | +15.5 | +30.7 |
| SOS | -5.6 | -1.4 |
| POWER | +13.5 | +30.3 |
FESTUS WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Festus finished the job, as Festus and Hillsboro finished 20-0. MOFO's pick of Hillsboro missed; the model had projected a 22-32 final.
The actual margin was 20 points versus MOFO's 9.3-point projection. That produced a 29.3-point margin error, with score errors of 2.5 for Festus and 31.7 for Hillsboro.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD HILLSBORO
MOFO leans toward Hillsboro because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 16.7-point power-rating advantage and projects a 9.3-point margin, with Hillsboro carrying a 77% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Hillsboro enters at 39.7 points per game compared with 30.7 for Festus. Hillsboro also allows 2.3 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -1.4 for Hillsboro and -5.6 for Festus. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Hillsboro owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Hillsboro has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 16.7-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.