TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Rock Bridge | Helias Catholic |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-1 | 4-0 |
| PF / GAME | 34.2 | 34.5 |
| PA / GAME | 25.0 | 17.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | +15.1 | +21.9 |
| SOS | -7.3 | -2.8 |
| POWER | +12.5 | +20.9 |
HELIAS CATHOLIC WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Helias Catholic finished the job, as Rock Bridge and Helias Catholic finished 7-28. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 25-31 final.
The actual margin was 21 points versus MOFO's 5.9-point projection. That produced a 15.1-point margin error, with score errors of 17.8 for Rock Bridge and 2.7 for Helias Catholic.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD HELIAS CATHOLIC
MOFO leans toward Helias Catholic because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 8.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 5.9-point margin, with Helias Catholic carrying a 69% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Helias Catholic enters at 34.5 points per game compared with 34.2 for Rock Bridge. Helias Catholic also allows 7.6 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -2.8 for Helias Catholic and -7.3 for Rock Bridge. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Helias Catholic owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Helias Catholic has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 8.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.