TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Scott City with Chaffee | Hayti |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-4 | 3-1 |
| PF / GAME | 22.2 | 36.9 |
| PA / GAME | 35.4 | 24.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | -18.7 | +12.2 |
| SOS | +3.1 | +2.3 |
| POWER | -17.6 | +13.0 |
HAYTI WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Hayti finished the job, as Scott City with Chaffee and Hayti finished 14-38. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 20-40 final.
The actual margin was 24 points versus MOFO's 20.0-point projection. That produced a 4.0-point margin error, with score errors of 5.6 for Scott City with Chaffee and 1.6 for Hayti.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD HAYTI
MOFO leans toward Hayti because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 30.7-point power-rating advantage and projects a 20.0-point margin, with Hayti carrying a 94% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Hayti enters at 36.9 points per game compared with 22.2 for Scott City with Chaffee. Hayti also allows 11.4 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +2.3 for Hayti and +3.1 for Scott City with Chaffee. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Hayti owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Scott City with Chaffee has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 30.7-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.