TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | St. Mary's South Side | Hayden Catholic (KS) |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| PF / GAME | 19.2 | 27.9 |
| PA / GAME | 28.9 | 29.3 |
| AVG MARGIN | -13.6 | -4.7 |
| SOS | +15.7 | +18.7 |
| POWER | -8.1 | +1.9 |
ST. MARY'S SOUTH SIDE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
St. Mary's South Side finished the job, as St. Mary's South Side and Hayden Catholic (KS) finished 49-28. MOFO's pick of Hayden Catholic (KS) missed; the model had projected a 23-29 final.
The actual margin was 21 points versus MOFO's 6.3-point projection. That produced a 27.3-point margin error, with score errors of 25.8 for St. Mary's South Side and 1.5 for Hayden Catholic (KS).
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD HAYDEN CATHOLIC (KS)
MOFO leans toward Hayden Catholic (KS) because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 10.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 6.3-point margin, with Hayden Catholic (KS) carrying a 70% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Hayden Catholic (KS) enters at 27.9 points per game compared with 19.2 for St. Mary's South Side. St. Mary's South Side's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +18.7 for Hayden Catholic (KS) and +15.7 for St. Mary's South Side. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Hayden Catholic (KS) owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Hayden Catholic (KS) has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 10.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.