TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Keytesville | Hardin-Central |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-4 | 4-0 |
| PF / GAME | 20.2 | 46.9 |
| PA / GAME | 40.0 | 28.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | -24.1 | +27.6 |
| SOS | -9.5 | +0.4 |
| POWER | -27.4 | +27.7 |
HARDIN-CENTRAL WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Hardin-Central finished the job, as Keytesville and Hardin-Central finished 22-58. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 18-50 final.
The actual margin was 36 points versus MOFO's 31.6-point projection. That produced a 4.4-point margin error, with score errors of 4.0 for Keytesville and 8.3 for Hardin-Central.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD HARDIN-CENTRAL
MOFO leans toward Hardin-Central because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 55.1-point power-rating advantage and projects a 31.6-point margin, with Hardin-Central carrying a 95% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Hardin-Central enters at 46.9 points per game compared with 20.2 for Keytesville. Hardin-Central also allows 11.6 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +0.4 for Hardin-Central and -9.5 for Keytesville. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Hardin-Central owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Hardin-Central has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 55.1-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.