TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Mexico | Hannibal |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| PF / GAME | 25.7 | 24.2 |
| PA / GAME | 19.4 | 27.2 |
| AVG MARGIN | +11.5 | -3.7 |
| SOS | +1.9 | +10.4 |
| POWER | +12.2 | -0.1 |
HANNIBAL WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Hannibal finished the job, as Mexico and Hannibal finished 0-46. MOFO's pick of Mexico missed; the model had projected a 28-20 final.
The actual margin was 46 points versus MOFO's 7.3-point projection. That produced a 53.3-point margin error, with score errors of 27.7 for Mexico and 25.5 for Hannibal.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD MEXICO
MOFO leans toward Mexico because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 12.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 7.3-point margin, with Mexico carrying a 73% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Mexico enters at 25.7 points per game compared with 24.2 for Hannibal. Mexico also allows 7.8 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +1.9 for Mexico and +10.4 for Hannibal. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Mexico owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Hannibal has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 12.3-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.