TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Scotland County | Hamilton/Warsaw (Co-op) (IL) |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 32.5 | 27.6 |
| PA / GAME | 21.0 | 27.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | +10.5 | +0.0 |
| SOS | -13.6 | +0.0 |
| POWER | +5.8 | +0.0 |
SCOTLAND COUNTY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Scotland County finished the job, as Scotland County and Hamilton/Warsaw (Co-op) (IL) finished 49-20. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 30-24 final.
The actual margin was 29 points versus MOFO's 6.6-point projection. That produced a 22.4-point margin error, with score errors of 18.5 for Scotland County and 3.9 for Hamilton/Warsaw (Co-op) (IL).
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SCOTLAND COUNTY
MOFO leans toward Scotland County because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 5.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 6.6-point margin, with Scotland County carrying a 71% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Scotland County enters at 32.5 points per game compared with 27.6 for Hamilton/Warsaw (Co-op) (IL). Scotland County also allows 6.6 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -13.6 for Scotland County and +0.0 for Hamilton/Warsaw (Co-op) (IL). Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low — no season data.
01Scotland County owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Hamilton/Warsaw (Co-op) (IL) has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 5.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.