TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Smithville | Grandview |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| PF / GAME | 21.4 | 31.0 |
| PA / GAME | 33.0 | 26.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | -18.2 | -0.2 |
| SOS | +18.9 | -14.9 |
| POWER | -11.6 | -5.4 |
SMITHVILLE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Smithville finished the job, as Smithville and Grandview finished 52-8. MOFO's pick of Grandview missed; the model had projected a 24-32 final.
The actual margin was 44 points versus MOFO's 8.5-point projection. That produced a 52.5-point margin error, with score errors of 28.4 for Smithville and 24.1 for Grandview.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD GRANDVIEW
MOFO leans toward Grandview because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 6.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 8.5-point margin, with Grandview carrying a 76% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Grandview enters at 31.0 points per game compared with 21.4 for Smithville. Grandview also allows 7.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -14.9 for Grandview and +18.9 for Smithville. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Grandview owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Smithville has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 6.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.