TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Ft. Zumwalt North | Ft. Zumwalt South |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| PF / GAME | 23.5 | 21.7 |
| PA / GAME | 30.5 | 29.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | -9.9 | -11.7 |
| SOS | +5.9 | +2.5 |
| POWER | -7.8 | -10.9 |
FT. ZUMWALT NORTH WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Ft. Zumwalt North finished the job, as Ft. Zumwalt North and Ft. Zumwalt South finished 42-7. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 27-26 final.
The actual margin was 35 points versus MOFO's 1.3-point projection. That produced a 33.7-point margin error, with score errors of 15.1 for Ft. Zumwalt North and 18.6 for Ft. Zumwalt South.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD FT. ZUMWALT NORTH
MOFO leans toward Ft. Zumwalt North because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 3.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 1.3-point margin, with Ft. Zumwalt North carrying a 54% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Ft. Zumwalt North enters at 23.5 points per game compared with 21.7 for Ft. Zumwalt South. Ft. Zumwalt South's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +5.9 for Ft. Zumwalt North and +2.5 for Ft. Zumwalt South. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Ft. Zumwalt North owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Ft. Zumwalt North has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 3.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.