TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Washington | Ft. Zumwalt East |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-4 | 2-2 |
| PF / GAME | 22.9 | 30.4 |
| PA / GAME | 25.7 | 29.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | -4.1 | +0.3 |
| SOS | -0.2 | -2.2 |
| POWER | -4.1 | -0.5 |
WASHINGTON WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Washington finished the job, as Washington and Ft. Zumwalt East finished 49-31. MOFO's pick of Ft. Zumwalt East missed; the model had projected a 26-28 final.
The actual margin was 18 points versus MOFO's 2.6-point projection. That produced a 20.6-point margin error, with score errors of 23.1 for Washington and 2.5 for Ft. Zumwalt East.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD FT. ZUMWALT EAST
MOFO leans toward Ft. Zumwalt East because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 3.6-point power-rating advantage and projects a 2.6-point margin, with Ft. Zumwalt East carrying a 59% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Ft. Zumwalt East enters at 30.4 points per game compared with 22.9 for Washington. Washington's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -2.2 for Ft. Zumwalt East and -0.2 for Washington. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Ft. Zumwalt East owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Washington has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 3.6-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.