TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Liberty (Wentzville) | Francis Howell |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| PF / GAME | 29.4 | 26.7 |
| PA / GAME | 23.4 | 25.2 |
| AVG MARGIN | +3.1 | +4.3 |
| SOS | -5.8 | +0.7 |
| POWER | +1.0 | +4.6 |
FRANCIS HOWELL WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Francis Howell finished the job, as Liberty (Wentzville) and Francis Howell finished 7-41. MOFO's pick of Liberty (Wentzville) missed; the model had projected a 27-25 final.
The actual margin was 34 points versus MOFO's 1.4-point projection. That produced a 35.4-point margin error, with score errors of 19.8 for Liberty (Wentzville) and 15.5 for Francis Howell.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD LIBERTY (WENTZVILLE)
MOFO leans toward Liberty (Wentzville) because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 3.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 1.4-point margin, with Liberty (Wentzville) carrying a 55% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Liberty (Wentzville) enters at 29.4 points per game compared with 26.7 for Francis Howell. Liberty (Wentzville) also allows 1.8 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -5.8 for Liberty (Wentzville) and +0.7 for Francis Howell. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Liberty (Wentzville) owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Francis Howell has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 3.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.