TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Kirkwood | Eureka |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-0 | 3-1 |
| PF / GAME | 43.6 | 32.4 |
| PA / GAME | 22.6 | 25.5 |
| AVG MARGIN | +32.0 | +10.9 |
| SOS | -3.1 | +8.0 |
| POWER | +30.9 | +13.7 |
EUREKA WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Eureka finished the job, as Kirkwood and Eureka finished 24-35. MOFO's pick of Kirkwood missed; the model had projected a 36-26 final.
The actual margin was 11 points versus MOFO's 10.4-point projection. That produced a 21.4-point margin error, with score errors of 12.2 for Kirkwood and 9.2 for Eureka.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD KIRKWOOD
MOFO leans toward Kirkwood because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 17.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 10.4-point margin, with Kirkwood carrying a 80% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Kirkwood enters at 43.6 points per game compared with 32.4 for Eureka. Kirkwood also allows 2.9 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -3.1 for Kirkwood and +8.0 for Eureka. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Kirkwood owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Eureka has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 17.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.