TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Sherwood | El Dorado Springs |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| PF / GAME | 27.2 | 22.5 |
| PA / GAME | 16.0 | 29.5 |
| AVG MARGIN | +9.0 | -11.8 |
| SOS | -13.5 | -8.0 |
| POWER | +4.3 | -14.6 |
EL DORADO SPRINGS WRITES THE FINAL WORD
El Dorado Springs finished the job, as Sherwood and El Dorado Springs finished 18-28. MOFO's pick of Sherwood missed; the model had projected a 30-17 final.
The actual margin was 10 points versus MOFO's 12.8-point projection. That produced a 22.8-point margin error, with score errors of 12.2 for Sherwood and 10.6 for El Dorado Springs.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SHERWOOD
MOFO leans toward Sherwood because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 18.9-point power-rating advantage and projects a 12.8-point margin, with Sherwood carrying a 85% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Sherwood enters at 27.2 points per game compared with 22.5 for El Dorado Springs. Sherwood also allows 13.5 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -13.5 for Sherwood and -8.0 for El Dorado Springs. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Sherwood owns the stronger scoring profile.
02El Dorado Springs has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 18.9-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.