TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Cassville | East Newton |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-0 | 1-3 |
| PF / GAME | 38.0 | 16.9 |
| PA / GAME | 18.5 | 38.5 |
| AVG MARGIN | +25.3 | -25.4 |
| SOS | -5.4 | +11.7 |
| POWER | +23.4 | -21.3 |
CASSVILLE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Cassville finished the job, as Cassville and East Newton finished 49-14. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 43-13 final.
The actual margin was 35 points versus MOFO's 29.7-point projection. That produced a 5.3-point margin error, with score errors of 6.2 for Cassville and 0.8 for East Newton.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD CASSVILLE
MOFO leans toward Cassville because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 44.7-point power-rating advantage and projects a 29.7-point margin, with Cassville carrying a 95% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Cassville enters at 38.0 points per game compared with 16.9 for East Newton. Cassville also allows 20.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -5.4 for Cassville and +11.7 for East Newton. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Cassville owns the stronger scoring profile.
02East Newton has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 44.7-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.