TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | North Platte | East Buchanan |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| PF / GAME | 24.7 | 29.5 |
| PA / GAME | 25.9 | 25.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | -1.5 | +4.1 |
| SOS | +4.6 | +0.5 |
| POWER | +0.1 | +4.3 |
NORTH PLATTE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
North Platte finished the job, as North Platte and East Buchanan finished 51-21. MOFO's pick of East Buchanan missed; the model had projected a 25-28 final.
The actual margin was 30 points versus MOFO's 2.9-point projection. That produced a 32.9-point margin error, with score errors of 26.0 for North Platte and 6.9 for East Buchanan.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD EAST BUCHANAN
MOFO leans toward East Buchanan because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 4.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 2.9-point margin, with East Buchanan carrying a 60% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: East Buchanan enters at 29.5 points per game compared with 24.7 for North Platte. North Platte's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +0.5 for East Buchanan and +4.6 for North Platte. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01East Buchanan owns the stronger scoring profile.
02North Platte has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 4.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.