TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Missouri Military Academy | Duchesne |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-2 | 0-3 |
| PF / GAME | 13.8 | 14.8 |
| PA / GAME | 41.2 | 37.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | -32.8 | -30.7 |
| SOS | +13.4 | -9.6 |
| POWER | -28.1 | -34.0 |
DUCHESNE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Duchesne finished the job, as Missouri Military Academy and Duchesne finished 8-64. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 27-27 final.
The actual margin was 56 points versus MOFO's 0.3-point projection. That produced a 55.7-point margin error, with score errors of 18.7 for Missouri Military Academy and 37.1 for Duchesne.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD DUCHESNE
MOFO leans toward Duchesne because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 5.9-point power-rating advantage and projects a 0.3-point margin, with Duchesne carrying a 51% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Duchesne enters at 14.8 points per game compared with 13.8 for Missouri Military Academy. Duchesne also allows 3.8 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -9.6 for Duchesne and +13.4 for Missouri Military Academy. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Duchesne owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Missouri Military Academy has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 5.9-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.