TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Kelly | Doniphan |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| PF / GAME | 28.5 | 20.5 |
| PA / GAME | 27.2 | 26.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | +3.7 | -5.7 |
| SOS | -6.7 | -19.5 |
| POWER | +1.3 | -12.6 |
KELLY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Kelly finished the job, as Kelly and Doniphan finished 36-0. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 30-22 final.
The actual margin was 36 points versus MOFO's 7.8-point projection. That produced a 28.2-point margin error, with score errors of 6.3 for Kelly and 21.9 for Doniphan.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD KELLY
MOFO leans toward Kelly because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 13.9-point power-rating advantage and projects a 7.8-point margin, with Kelly carrying a 74% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Kelly enters at 28.5 points per game compared with 20.5 for Doniphan. Doniphan's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -6.7 for Kelly and -19.5 for Doniphan. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Kelly owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Kelly has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 13.9-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.