TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Ash Grove | Diamond |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-1 | 0-3 |
| PF / GAME | 24.4 | 16.4 |
| PA / GAME | 24.4 | 40.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | +1.2 | -35.0 |
| SOS | -2.9 | +14.7 |
| POWER | +0.2 | -29.8 |
ASH GROVE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Ash Grove finished the job, as Ash Grove and Diamond finished 22-19. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 36-17 final.
The actual margin was 3 points versus MOFO's 18.2-point projection. That produced a 15.2-point margin error, with score errors of 13.6 for Ash Grove and 1.6 for Diamond.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ASH GROVE
MOFO leans toward Ash Grove because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 30.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 18.2-point margin, with Ash Grove carrying a 92% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Ash Grove enters at 24.4 points per game compared with 16.4 for Diamond. Ash Grove also allows 16.4 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -2.9 for Ash Grove and +14.7 for Diamond. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Ash Grove owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Diamond has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 30.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.