TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Windsor (Imperial) | DeSoto |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| PF / GAME | 29.9 | 24.4 |
| PA / GAME | 36.7 | 28.7 |
| AVG MARGIN | -10.3 | -6.5 |
| SOS | +1.8 | +5.9 |
| POWER | -9.6 | -4.4 |
DESOTO WRITES THE FINAL WORD
DeSoto finished the job, as Windsor (Imperial) and DeSoto finished 12-40. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 28-31 final.
The actual margin was 28 points versus MOFO's 2.8-point projection. That produced a 25.2-point margin error, with score errors of 16.5 for Windsor (Imperial) and 8.7 for DeSoto.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD DESOTO
MOFO leans toward DeSoto because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 5.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 2.8-point margin, with DeSoto carrying a 59% win probability.
Windsor (Imperial) actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. DeSoto also allows 8.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +5.9 for DeSoto and +1.8 for Windsor (Imperial). Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Windsor (Imperial) owns the stronger scoring profile.
02DeSoto has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 5.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.