TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Vianney | De Smet Jesuit |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| PF / GAME | 37.2 | 39.0 |
| PA / GAME | 31.7 | 29.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | -1.9 | +10.7 |
| SOS | -0.6 | +2.6 |
| POWER | -2.1 | +11.6 |
DE SMET JESUIT WRITES THE FINAL WORD
De Smet Jesuit finished the job, as Vianney and De Smet Jesuit finished 20-59. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 32-37 final.
The actual margin was 39 points versus MOFO's 5.2-point projection. That produced a 33.8-point margin error, with score errors of 11.7 for Vianney and 22.1 for De Smet Jesuit.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD DE SMET JESUIT
MOFO leans toward De Smet Jesuit because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 13.7-point power-rating advantage and projects a 5.2-point margin, with De Smet Jesuit carrying a 67% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: De Smet Jesuit enters at 39.0 points per game compared with 37.2 for Vianney. De Smet Jesuit also allows 2.3 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +2.6 for De Smet Jesuit and -0.6 for Vianney. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01De Smet Jesuit owns the stronger scoring profile.
02De Smet Jesuit has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 13.7-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.