TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Herculaneum | Cuba with Steelville |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| PF / GAME | 20.9 | 27.9 |
| PA / GAME | 26.2 | 24.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | -12.7 | +4.5 |
| SOS | +1.4 | -14.7 |
| POWER | -12.3 | -0.6 |
HERCULANEUM WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Herculaneum finished the job, as Herculaneum and Cuba with Steelville finished 35-8. MOFO's pick of Cuba with Steelville missed; the model had projected a 21-28 final.
The actual margin was 27 points versus MOFO's 6.9-point projection. That produced a 33.9-point margin error, with score errors of 13.7 for Herculaneum and 20.2 for Cuba with Steelville.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD CUBA WITH STEELVILLE
MOFO leans toward Cuba with Steelville because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 11.6-point power-rating advantage and projects a 6.9-point margin, with Cuba with Steelville carrying a 71% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Cuba with Steelville enters at 27.9 points per game compared with 20.9 for Herculaneum. Cuba with Steelville also allows 2.2 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -14.7 for Cuba with Steelville and +1.4 for Herculaneum. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Cuba with Steelville owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Herculaneum has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 11.6-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.