TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | St. Dominic | Chaminade College Prep |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| PF / GAME | 21.2 | 25.2 |
| PA / GAME | 25.7 | 28.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | -7.4 | -2.0 |
| SOS | +0.4 | +3.1 |
| POWER | -7.3 | -0.9 |
CHAMINADE COLLEGE PREP WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Chaminade College Prep finished the job, as St. Dominic and Chaminade College Prep finished 7-23. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 24-26 final.
The actual margin was 16 points versus MOFO's 2.1-point projection. That produced a 13.9-point margin error, with score errors of 17.2 for St. Dominic and 3.3 for Chaminade College Prep.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD CHAMINADE COLLEGE PREP
MOFO leans toward Chaminade College Prep because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 6.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 2.1-point margin, with Chaminade College Prep carrying a 57% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Chaminade College Prep enters at 25.2 points per game compared with 21.2 for St. Dominic. St. Dominic's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +3.1 for Chaminade College Prep and +0.4 for St. Dominic. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Chaminade College Prep owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Chaminade College Prep has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 6.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.