TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Park Hill South | Central (St. Joseph) |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| PF / GAME | 25.0 | 26.0 |
| PA / GAME | 31.4 | 29.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | -8.8 | -2.7 |
| SOS | -1.9 | -2.1 |
| POWER | -9.5 | -3.5 |
CENTRAL (ST. JOSEPH) WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Central (St. Joseph) finished the job, as Park Hill South and Central (St. Joseph) finished 25-26. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 26-29 final.
The actual margin was 1 points versus MOFO's 3.0-point projection. That produced a 2.0-point margin error, with score errors of 1.3 for Park Hill South and 3.4 for Central (St. Joseph).
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD CENTRAL (ST. JOSEPH)
MOFO leans toward Central (St. Joseph) because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 6.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 3.0-point margin, with Central (St. Joseph) carrying a 60% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Central (St. Joseph) enters at 26.0 points per game compared with 25.0 for Park Hill South. Central (St. Joseph) also allows 2.4 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -2.1 for Central (St. Joseph) and -1.9 for Park Hill South. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Central (St. Joseph) owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Park Hill South has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 6.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.