TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | St. Pius X (Festus) | Caruthersville |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-1 | 3-1 |
| PF / GAME | 46.5 | 36.5 |
| PA / GAME | 16.7 | 23.5 |
| AVG MARGIN | +24.8 | +16.7 |
| SOS | -5.9 | -2.2 |
| POWER | +22.7 | +15.9 |
ST. PIUS X (FESTUS) WRITES THE FINAL WORD
St. Pius X (Festus) finished the job, as St. Pius X (Festus) and Caruthersville finished 57-12. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 36-26 final.
The actual margin was 45 points versus MOFO's 9.8-point projection. That produced a 35.2-point margin error, with score errors of 21.3 for St. Pius X (Festus) and 13.9 for Caruthersville.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ST. PIUS X (FESTUS)
MOFO leans toward St. Pius X (Festus) because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 6.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 9.8-point margin, with St. Pius X (Festus) carrying a 79% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: St. Pius X (Festus) enters at 46.5 points per game compared with 36.5 for Caruthersville. St. Pius X (Festus) also allows 6.8 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -5.9 for St. Pius X (Festus) and -2.2 for Caruthersville. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01St. Pius X (Festus) owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Caruthersville has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 6.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.