TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Joplin | Carthage |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| PF / GAME | 27.2 | 36.2 |
| PA / GAME | 23.9 | 21.5 |
| AVG MARGIN | +5.1 | +21.4 |
| SOS | -9.7 | -5.9 |
| POWER | +1.7 | +19.3 |
CARTHAGE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Carthage finished the job, as Joplin and Carthage finished 14-42. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 22-32 final.
The actual margin was 28 points versus MOFO's 10.2-point projection. That produced a 17.8-point margin error, with score errors of 8.1 for Joplin and 9.7 for Carthage.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD CARTHAGE
MOFO leans toward Carthage because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 17.7-point power-rating advantage and projects a 10.2-point margin, with Carthage carrying a 80% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Carthage enters at 36.2 points per game compared with 27.2 for Joplin. Carthage also allows 2.4 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -5.9 for Carthage and -9.7 for Joplin. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Carthage owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Carthage has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 17.7-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.